LUCKNOW CALLING

Priyanka Gandhi

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies won a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever performance of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party. Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

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CAPTAIN KEEN TO LEAD IN 2022

Capt. Amarinder Singh

Addressing a press conference to mark the third anniversary of his government, Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh has clarified that he would lead the Congress from the front even in the next state elections. This in spite of the fact that during the poll campaign for the 2017 elections, the erstwhile Patiala royal had declared that it would be his last electoral contest. You generally do not expect politicians to keep up their words and thank god, Amarinder has proved to be no exception. Though one may be tempted to brush aside Singh's words considering that the next state elections are still two years away, there is certainly more to it, especially when seen in the context of the turmoil that has been going through in the Congress ever since the debacle of 2014.

The Singh v/s Sidhu tussle: For years now, Captain Amarinder Singh has been the face of the Congress in the north-western state. After seeing off the rebellion by Rajinder Kaur Bhattal in the early 2000s, he has been the undisputed numero uno in the party's pecking order, even enjoying the complete favor of the party high command in Delhi. However, the entry of former cricketer turned politician Navjot Singh Sidhu into the INC has changed the equations to some extent. Apart from age, the former Amritsar MP reportedly has the active backing of Congress Vice President Priyanka Gandhi, the one factor that can make or break things in the grand old party. No wonder then that the former Amritsar MP was given the charge of Tourism in Captain's cabinet.

However, a series of misadventures on Sidhu's part including his attendance of Pakistani PM Imran Khan's oath taking ceremony gave the Punjab CM the opportunity to cut the former to size. Sidhu was publicly reprimanded by captain on several occasions before being unceremoniously dropped from the cabinet altogether. And all this while, there was no objection raised, at least publicly, by the Gandhis completely aware that any rap on Amarinder's knuckles might adversely affect the Congress' chances in one of the few states where its stocks are soaring. Lately, there was some talk that Priyanka Gandhi who had met Sidhu in Delhi earlier this month had promised to give him a 'very important' role in the 2022 poll campaign. However, Singh's announcement of leading the party for the next elections is perhaps, Captain's pre-preemptive strike. He is not handing over to Sidhu, come what may.

Old Guards v/s Young Turks: When the Congress won the 2004 polls against the prediction of most political pundits in the country, many had attributed the victory to the right balance of experience and youth within the INC. Fifteen years down the line, it is this very divide that today threatens to destroy whatever little is left of it. Ever since Rahul Gandhi stepped down as the President of the Congress, the fortunes of the young brigade seems to be waning. Former Mumbai MP Milind Deora is sulking for a while; Sachin Pilot is not exactly on good terms with Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot whereas Rahul's closest aide Jyotiraditya Scindia is today firmly in the saffron camp, heaping praises on Modi and Shah. Meanwhile, the veterans who had lost most of their political heft during the days of junior Gandhi are using this opportunity to stage a comeback with the party's power structure.

Quite obviously, this fact is not lost on Amarinder Singh either who is an old timer. To add to it, Sidhu, his only 'young' challenger within the party has scored too many self goals and Captain has been quick to capitalize on them, reprimanding his former cabinet colleague several times for his actions and statements. With each shot that he has taken at his adversary, Singh's position has become stronger. Captain's words, therefore must be also seen as a continuation of the generational war ragging in the Congress, with the odds being in favor of the old guard for the time being.

The Rise of Regional Satraps in the INC: Ever since Indira Gandhi came back to power post the infamous Emergency, there was a systematic attempt by the Congress High Command to cut powerful regional leaders to size, a policy that was later continued by Rajiv and Sonia. State leaders with significant mass base were denied the post of Chief Minister whereas the post was generally filled with sycophants who would cater to the whims and fancies of New Delhi and were dependent on the Gandhi brand value for their political survival. While this may have worked earlier, the rise of Modi has somehow taken the sheen away from the Congress' first family. Unfortunately for the INC, absence of local leaders with a strong ground network and popular support base has meant that it finds itself behind the BJP and regional players is most Indian states. Not only does this affect the party's finances considering that it has been out of the Union government for two terms, it also reduces its ability to send some of its best orators to Rajya Sabha.

A look at the party's situation today shows that it has only three strong state leaders - Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Siddaramaih in Karnataka and Amarinder Singh in Punjab. To add to it, the 78 year old leader's popularity is at a all time high. The Akalis are still licking their wounds; the disastrous defeat in the 2017 state polls had been a body blow and it will take some time for the Badals to recover from it. The AAP has failed to expand its voter base in the state. With a second consecutive term looking assured as of now, Captain Saab would want to grace the CM's chair for the fourth time whereas the High Command, no matter how sympathetic it is to Sidhu's cause, would have no option but to stick with Captain.

Two years is a long time in politics. However, don't be surprised if Captain will lead the Congress in the 2022 polls. Most likely, the 'important' position that Priyanka seems to have promised Sidhu would be that of one of the party's star campaigners and the former cricketer would be expected to win over voters for his in-party rival with his witty jokes.

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MEHBOOBA'S ACID TEST

Mehbooba (right) with father Mufti Mohammad

By-polls to state legislatures are seldom interesting and seven out of ten times, it is the ruling party that wins them, either due to their own popularity or to put it lightly, by 'effective' use of the state machinery. Either way, the odds get stacked into the favor of the ruling party all the more if they have completed less than half of their full term. Considering this, Mehbooba Mufti who is contesting as a PDP candidate from the Anantnag assembly seat scheduled for June 22 should not have much to worry about. Moreover, since she is the heir to the legacy of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, one of the tallest political leaders of Kashmir and the fact that she is herself serving as the Chief Minister, should make her task all the more easy.

However, the shrewd political leader that she is, the junior Mufti knows that her victory in the by-polls is far from assured. Though chances of her losing are bleak, waning personal popularity, deteriorating law and order situation in the Valley as well as dissatisfaction amongst the Kashmiris around the PDP's alliance with the BJP means that Mehbooba just cannot afford to be complacent. Irrespective of the results, the outcome of the Anantnag by-polls is going to have a major impact on the political career of independent India's second Muslim woman Chief Minister.

Year	Event
1996	Elected to state legislature from Bijbehara constituency as a Congress candidate
1999	Left Congress to join PDP floated by her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed
	Lost Parliamentary elections from Srinagar to Omar Abdullah of NC
2002	Elected to state legislature from Pahalgam constituency
2004	Won Parliamentary elections from Anantnag
2014	Won Parliamentary elections from Anantnag
2016	Took oath as the Chief Minister of Jammu Kashmir

The Anantnag assembly segment fell vacant following the demise of former CM Mufti Mohammad Sayeed on January 7 earlier this year in New Delhi. His daughter and incumbent CM Mehbooba who is representing South Kashmir in the Parliament has six months to get elected to either the state legislative assembly or the legislative council to be able to continue in the office. In her maiden term, the PDP supremo's performance has been far from satisfactory. After keeping the BJP guessing for months, she took the oath as the state's ninth CM in April in spite of the fact that the Modi regime at Centre refused to accept any of her demands for special privileges to be extended to the northern state and its people. In the last few months, spiraling violence, rise in militancy and differences with her ally - the BJP on a wide range of issues has put her on the back foot. The firebrand leader appears to be have mellowed down a bit, as she settles into her role as the Chief Minister; her famed ability to connect with the ordinary Kashmiri on the street seems to be deserting her.

Anti-Incumbency: The poor attendance at the funeral of her father, late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was a sure indication that the People's Democratic Party (PDP) which had swept the Valley in the 2014 polls is fast losing its appeal amongst the masses. Mehbooba tried to overcome some of this anger against her family and her party by making the BJP wait before she took over the reins of the government. However, the move has not helped her politically, at least to the extent that she had hoped to. The dissatisfaction with her regime has only been compounded by months of deteriorating law and order situation and the spate in terror attacks. Though South Kashmir has generally been the stronghold of the Mufti family, almost everyone agrees that unlike previous polls, a victory in the Anantnag assembly segment is not going to be a cake walk for Mehbooba.

The PDP-BJP Alliance: The PDP's alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not gone well with the Kashmiris. Though BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee may have been a widely admired figure in the Valley, the saffron outfit continues to be looked upon as 'communal' and 'anti-Kashmiri'. In fact, the BJP's views on Article 370, the revocation of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), its tough stance on the 'separatists', its anti-Pakistan rhetoric and the beef controversy has left most people in the region worried. Besides, a good number of leaders in the PDP top brass are said to be uncomfortable with this marriage of convenience between the two parties. The tie up with the national party is for sure, going to affect the voter base of the PDP. Of course, one could argue that the Muftis had no option but to join hands with the BJP following the fractured mandate of 2014. But then, there is no doubt that this will play on the minds of the Anantnag voter as he casts his/her vote on June 22. With the BJP offering to campaign for the CM, it remains to be seen if she accepts the saffron camp's offer or not.

Fractured Opposition: In all this though, there is one major silver lining for Mehbooba which in the end could decide whether she passes this 'acid test' or not. Though independent legislator and a fierce critic of the PDP-BJP alliance Sheikh Abdul Rasheed, better known as 'Engineer' Rasheed has opted out of the race, there are still seven other candidates in the fray. The National Conference has nominated Iftikar Hussain Misgar who lost to Mufti Sayeed in 2014 polls whereas Congress has nominated Hilal Ahmad Shah for the seat. Besides, there are five more independents who have thrown their hat in the ring. With the Opposition votes divided, Mehbooba should be able to scrap through in spite of a strong anti-incumbency wave.

What if Scenarios: June 25 is going to be an important day in the political career of the lawyer turned politician who is trying to emerge out of the shadows of her late father and assert herself on the political stage.

A victory, with say over 8,000 votes will give her the kind of political thrust that she so desperately needs. The cynicism around her abilities to lead the state will be put to rest for the time being and her alliance with the BJP will get some sort of 'legitimacy', however limited it may be. Moreover, all murmurs amongst the cadre for splitting with the saffron camp will be all but over.

A win with less than 5,000 votes though will at least force her to rethink her alliance with the BJP, though she is unlikely to call it off as of now. At the same time though, the anti-BJP block within the PDP will get a lot of ammunition.

A defeat though will be disastrously; not only will she be forced to resign from the post of CM, she would have not option but to break her partnership with the saffronists in a bid to protect whatever is left of her support base in the Valley.

Fifty seven year old Mehbooba has fought many a political battles in the past, winning most and losing a few. However, the upcoming polls to the Anantnag segment, her first since becoming the Chief Minister of Jammu Kashmir could well be her toughest battle till date.

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