THE SHAH OF POLLS

Amit Shah - Courtesy: India Today

The dust on the electoral battle field has settled and the incumbent PM Narendra Modi and his BJP has stormed to another term in power, this time with a much stronger mandate. The saffron party on its own won 303 seats while the NDA finished with a spectacular tally of 353 inching very close to a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Though PM's popularity with the masses and the lack of a strong Opposition are cited as primary reasons for the BJP's solid showing at the hustings, it is easy to over look the role of the party President - Amit Shah under whose leadership, the saffron outfit has been transformed into a well oiled election machine that barring a few setbacks, has won most state polls in India over the last five years.

Considering that PM Modi has not been able to deliver on many of the promises he made during the run up to the 2014 polls, BJP was expected to drop seats, especially in the Hindi heartland where it had lost three crucial states in November last year. Agrarian distress and unemployment were believed to only make the matter worse for the ruling dispensation. Though the Balakot air strikes managed to turn the tide significantly in favor of the BJP, Shah's deft handling of alliances in crucial states, his efforts in strengthening the party organization apart from the his conscious efforts to expand the BJP's footprints in the East and North-East seem to have paid handsome dividends in form of massive gains throughout the country, barring deep South.

Strengthening the Party: Early in his tenure as the national president, buoyed by Modi's soaring popularity, Shah began a membership drive where people could join the saffron ranks by simply giving a missed call. Leaders right from the Panchayat to the national level were given targets and their performance was monitored. Within months, the BJP with a membership of over 10 crores became the largest political party in the world. Next, as four states went to polls, in the later half of 2014, the former Gujarat Home Minister began replicating his 2014 UP success story across the nation. Panna Pramukhs, responsible for about 8-10 families that figured on a single page of electoral rolls in a constituency, were appointed throughout the country. Key strategists from the RSS like Ram Madhav were roped into the party. In the run up to the national elections, programs like 'Mera Booth, Sabse Majbhoot' were launched to boost morale of party workers. Over the span of five years, Shah's many moves at strengthening the party, like those mentioned above, paid rich dividends as the enthused party cadre tapped in Modi's popularity to win a landslide victory.

Stitching Key Alliances: Once the pioneer of coalition politics in India, it was said that Modi's autocratic way of functioning was pushing key allies away from the BJP. Months before the polls, Shah began getting disgruntled NDA partners on board. Shiv Sena which had been the most trenchant opponent of the BJP and the PM in the last term was convinced to remain within the NDA in spite of the party supremo Uddhav Thackeray's earlier announcement of going to the hustings all alone. Nitish Kumar led JD-U was allocated 17 seats with the BJP even giving away seats that they had won in 2014 as a part of the seat sharing arrangement in Bihar. In Assam, the AGP which had left the NDA protesting over the Citizenship Bill too was convinced to back the saffron outfit for the national polls. In the south, the BJP put up an impressive front including the ruling AIADMK, Ramdos led PMK, actor turned politician Vijaykant led DMDK and so on.

As the results started trickling in on 23rd May, Shah's effort seem to have bore fruits. Though the DMK led front swept Tamil Nadu, in other places it was the NDA that trounced the UPA. JD-U won all but one of the 17 seats it contested as the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in Maharashtra with the NDA ending with a solid tally of 41 in Maharashtra. In Assam, the NDA once again proved its might bagging 9 of the 14 seats in the state.

Expanding party's footprints: Perhaps, Amit Shah's biggest achievement as the BJP national president has been his ability to expand the party's foot prints in hitherto unknown lands. Till 2014, the saffron outfit was considered as party with its base in the Hindi heartland and western India. Under Shah though, the party has made significant in roads into states like Odisha, Bengal and the North-East.

The BJP first emerged as the real challenger to Naveen Patnaik in the 2017 Panchayat polls when it stood second to the BJD. In the national polls, the party won 8 seats, an improvement of 7 over its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections. In Telangana, the saffron outfit shocked CM KCR and his TRS by winning 4 seats. This is an accomplishment considering that the pink party had swept the state polls held earlier this year. In the North East, the BJP and its partners in the NEDA won 18 of the 25 parliamentary seats. This region, till sometime back had minimal BJP presence and was see as a Congress bastion. But the story of 2019 polls was Bengal where the saffron outfit did the unthinkable, winning 18 seats and emerging as the biggest threat to CM Mamta Bannerjee's TMC.

Shah's hard work and perseverance seem to have caught the eye of the PM too. Shah has been inducted in the cabinet and is now seen as the new No 2 in the pecking order. The Chanakya who is credited for transforming the fortunes of the party is now the country's Home Minister. Can he now transform the fortunes of the country. Only time will tell.

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BIHAR: THE VERDICT

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

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DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

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