Showing posts with label JP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JP. Show all posts

Friday 21 August 2015

THE BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL

In the nineties and the early 2000s, he was the undisputed 'king' of Bihar's political landscape; apart from being the leader of the electorally influential Yadav community in the state, he also won the hearts of the Muslims by halting Lal Krishna Advani's Rath Yatra in Samastipur in 1990. It was precisely due to the backing of this formidable M-Y combination that Lalu Prasad Yadav won an unprecedented three consecutive state elections during that period. In fact, he was also a force to reckon with in national politics too during this time when the Congress hegemony on the post of the Prime Minister of India was being challenged on the one side by the right wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the loose coalition of regional satraps in various avatars on the other. After all, he was the one who blocked the elevation of another strong Yadav leader - Mulayum Singh Yadav from Samajwadi Party (SP) to the post of the PM in 1996. Moreover, when he had to resign following his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam, he 'abdicated the CM's chair' in favor of his wife Rabri Devi and later went on to become the Railway Minister in the first innings of the Congress led UPA in 2004.

Though he was at the height of his political power at around this time, he seemed to have completely miscalculated the mood of the people on the ground. The days of caste ridden and representative politics were numbered and the masses wanted their political leaders to deliver on issues that mattered the most including good roads, water supply, electricity, employment, education, law and order and poverty elevation. And this was certainly not the RJD chief's forte. In what can be described as the biggest political surprise of 2005, the Nitish led NDA comprising of the JD-U and the BJP comfortably beat the Yadav led UPA to finally end the 'Lalu era' or what his detractors refer to as the 'Jungle Raj' in Bihar. Unfortunately for him, this was just the beginning for what would be a decade of electoral losses and political setbacks. As Nitish Kumar ushered in a wave of development in the north state, Lalu's vote base and political fortunes began to decline exponentially. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA won 32 parliamentary seats while the RJD-LJP combine could muster just four. In the state polls held in the next year, further humiliation followed; the RJD was reduced to 22 seats and many were left wondering if Lalu would ever emerge from this spate of electoral defeats and resurrect his political career. As if this was not enough, the Supreme Court in 2015 upheld his conviction in the Fodder Scam by a CBI Court, making him ineligible to contest any polls for five years.

Lalu Prasad Yadav - Facebook
When all doors seem to be closing on the former CM, an opportunity came knocking post the split in the NDA after Nitish broke off all ties with the saffron outfit following the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's nominee for the post of PM in 2014 General Election. The RJD chief seemed to be ready to cash in. Apart from 'rectifying' his mistake of having dumped the Congress in 2009, he also flaunted his 'secular' credentials to counter the NaMo mania. In the triangular contest that followed, the NDA painted Bihar in saffron, winning a staggering 31 seats while leaving the warring regional parties - the RJD and the JD-U with four and two seats respectively. In what seemed to be a scene right out of a Bollywood blockbuster, friends turned foes - Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar who had fought each other for nearly two decades 'kissed and made up' in an attempt to remain relevant in the 'Modi Era'. As the various constituents of the erstwhile Janata Parivaar (JP) initiated proceeding to merge into a single entity to counter the rise of the BJP, the new found allies won a sweet victory over the NDA in the August 2014 Bihar by-polls where they were assisted by the Congress and the NCP. Besides, the two parties have managed to put the differences of the past behind them and are gearing up to face the NDA in the high stakes 2015 state polls which in many ways could decide the fate of one of the most popular yet controversial leaders of our times - Lalu Prasad Yadav.

An Uneasy Calm: Though they have put up a united front while addressing rallies or press conferences, it is clear that all is not well between the Lalu and Nitish who were at the opposing end of the political spectrum for over 15 years during which they have fought several bitter battles and accused each other of various wrong-doings. From the perspective of the RJD chief, it was Kumar who broke his iron grip over Bihar in 2005, thereby relegating him to the sidelines both in the state and central politics. Though Lalu may have joined hands with the JD-U for now, there is no doubt that the bitterness from the past is still strong and the deep distrust between the chieftains refuses to die down in spite of the two parties being together for nearly an year now. Perhaps, what hurts the RJD chief all the more is the fact that he plays 'second fiddle' to the incumbent CM in the fight against the BJP. As we know, it is Nitish Kumar who was anointed by the JP to lead the 'Secular' Front in Bihar and the two regional outfits got equal number of seats in spite of the RJD's demands for more considering their relatively better performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. But then, does Yadav have any choice? The answer is a 'No'. At this critical juncture when many are raising doubts over his future, Lalu has no choice but to stick with the mega coalition and focus on beating the NDA. All that the former Railway Minister can do to vent out is frustration is make sarcastic remarks like the one he made when asked about the appointment of Kumar as the alliance's CM candidate, "I am ready to drink all kinds of poison to crush the cobra of communalism".

A much needed victory: The one leader whose fate virtually hangs in the balance in the upcoming Bihar state polls is the RJD chief. At 67 years of age and having undergone a heart operation, he is certainly not getting any younger. As election results in the past nine years have shown, his once formidable M-Y combination seems to be gravitating towards his political rivals. The charges of corruption against him and his family as well as the horrific tales of lawlessness in Bihar under the RJD have completely tarnished his image. The charisma that won him many admirers in the past is vanning away whereas Yadav and the RJD have failed to re-inventing themselves or their ideologies so as to stay relevant in the minds of the state's youth. Moreover, his outfit just does not have any second rung mass leaders who are capable of getting the votes while his own children are yet to make their mark. With so many factors working against him, it is easy to understand why a victory is what Lalu Yadav needs at this juncture. Not only will it help him heal some of the scars of the past but will give him time, influence and power to put his party in order and pass on the baton to his sons and political successors - Tejaswi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav who have taken the lead as far as the campaign is concerned.

While winning the 2015 state polls is Lalu's primary agenda, the ideal scenario for him is if he manages to win more seats than the JD-U. Consider this scenario wherein the JP manages to go past the halfway mark but the RJD gets a higher tally than the JD-U, making it indispensable as far as the formation of a non-NDA government in the state is concerned. In this case, there is no doubt that Lalu will use his numbers to make sure that Nitish does not get the CM's chair. Even if he does allow the JD-U supremo to continue in the post, expect him to keep the Kurmi leader on the tenterhooks all the time.

A defeat = The End: A defeat for the 'Secular' Front will possibly be the final nail in the spectacular political career of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Following that sting of political losses, the conviction in the Fodder Scam and the image of a 'power-drunk and corrupt' politician that seems to have stuck with him for long, it will be pretty much safe to dip our pen in black ink and write Lalu's political obituary. Yadav's outfit - the RJD is in tatters and another defeat may prompt a mass exodus of most of the cadre towards other parties, further destroying whatever little is left of it. Lalu's eldest daughter Misa who was beaten by former aide Rajkripal Yadav from Patliputra parliamentary seat by a margin of 40,000 votes has been maintaining a low profile ever since. Meanwhile, his two sons are too young and politically naive to lead an immediate resurgence. While speaking to some journalist years agao, Lalu had famously remarked "Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, jab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu". Unfortunately for him, a flop show in 2015 may mean that the once powerful Bihari satrap is relegated to the fringes in state politics forever even as potatoes continue to embellish one of India's favorite snack.
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Sunday 16 August 2015

GET... SET... GO!

Source: News 18
"Why just 143 seats? The RJD should contest from all 243 assembly seats". This was Bihar CM Nitish Kumar's reaction in May to a question posed by a journalist after RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh's comment that his party should contest 143 seats as part of the 'Secular' Front since it had got more votes compared to the JD-U in the 2014 General Elections. With the top leadership of both parties taking pot shots at each other in the last three months, many in the media as well as the BJP were expecting the candidature of the Chief Minister as well as the seat sharing arrangement between the partners to be major road blocks in the future of this mega coalition. Considering the bitter rivalry that existed between the JD-U and the RJD in the past, they were definitely not off the mark; although going alone was out of question, speculations were rife that these two issues could potentially damage the camaraderie that exists between the former Socialist leaders for now, re-igniting past differences and sowing the seeds of 'disharmony' within the grand alliance.

The first of these two contentious issue - the choice of the Chief Ministerial candidate was sorted in June earlier this year as the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar was given the charge of leading the Janata Parivaar and its allies for the Bihar polls. His former rival - Lalu Prasad who is not eligible to contest any elections after his conviction in the Fodder Scam did try his best to play 'spoil sport'. However, the backing of the Congress and JP's supremo-in-waiting Mulayum Singh Yadav, the lack of any other credible face within the RJD to lead the Front and the image of Nitish as a pro-development leader meant that he was the numero uno choice for the post. In the media conference where the incumbent CM was declared as the leader of the non-NDA coalition, Lalu did make a 'veiled' attack at Kumar when he said that he was even ready to drink 'poison' just to keep the 'communal' forces at bay. In spite of all the drama, the bottom line was clear; the question of leadership of the new Front was a settled one and after throwing some tantrums, the RJD supremo did fall in line in the end, much to the relief of the coalition and its supporters. But then, the other concern was still there: Would the non-NDA parties be able to reach at a consensus on the number of seats to contest and put up a strong defence against the BJP led Front or would the alliance splinter owing to the 'bruised' egos of their leaders?

Many political analysts believed that the seat sharing arrangement could be the mega alliance's 'Achilles Heel'. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) were at loggerheads for long as to what would be the basis for reaching at the final figures; while the former wanted it to be based on the 2010 state polls, the latter was pressing for the General Polls 2014. Moreover, history too was not on their side. One would remember that in 2009, the Congress had walked out of the alliance with Lalu Yadav and LJP's Ramvilas Paswan after it was given just two seats to contest in the then General Elections. There were speculations that the Yadav strongman would demand more seats for his party as 'compensation' for supporting the candidature of Nitish Kumar. The JD-U, on the other hand, having contested as many as 140 odd seats in alliance with the BJP in 2010, was not very keen to accommodate his new found allies.

No wonder then, the news of the coalition partners reaching consensus last Wednesday came in as a surprise to most. As per the pact, the two main regional outfits are set to contest 100 seats each while leaving 40 seats for the Congress which seems to have benefited the most out of the rivalry between the regional parties. Meanwhile, in the conference that was attended by the top leaders of the coalition namely, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav and INC's C P Joshi, the mega coalition blew the electoral bugle. Of course, it was not a smooth sailing all throughout. NCP leader and Katihar MP Tarique Anwar was left fuming after his outfit was allocated just three seats, questioning the very 'secular' ideals that the coalition claims to uphold while accusing them of marginalizing the Muslims over the years for electoral gains. The Samajwadi Party (SP) whose supremo Mulayum Singh played a key role in bringing the coalition together is also said to be disappointed after it was left out of the talks. In fact, even RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh while speaking to the media expressed his disappointment over the formula and further went on to say that entire exercise was conducted in a 'hurry'.

All the infighting apart, the leaders of the 'Secular' Front must be congratulated for sorting out the two major issues facing its very existence. The pressure is now on the NDA in general and the BJP in particular. With the polls about three months away, the saffron party and its allies are yet to finalize the seat sharing formula. With Paswan, Manjhi and Kushwaha demanding over 60 seats each, it remains to be seen how Amit Shah manages to use his political acumen in reaching a compromise. Forget seat sharing, the BJP has not yet managed to project its CM candidate for the Bihar polls. With the 'Secular' alliance now getting ready for the battle, it is high time that the NDA puts its house in order if it wants to win the prestigious state of Bihar.
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WILL CHANAKYA'S 'NEETI' WORK?

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup few weeks ago when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.


Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.


The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went to the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

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