Showing posts with label RJD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RJD. Show all posts

Wednesday 11 November 2015

BIHAR: THE VERDICT


Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.


The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).
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Saturday 24 October 2015

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook
While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bĂȘte noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

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Sunday 20 September 2015

THE TRUMP CARD

Asaduddin Owaisi - Facebook
Will he jump into the electoral fray, like he did in state elections to the Maharashtra state assembly in 2014 or will he stay away from it, leaving it for the two main coalitions to battle it out for the the all important state of Bihar? And if he does, what impact will it have on the prospects of the NDA and the JD-U led 'Mahagatbandhan' who are doing their best to drum up support in an electorate which as history suggests is divided along the lines of caste and religion, each fiercely loyal to one or the other outfit. The AIMIM president and the Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi put all the speculations to rest last week when he announced that his party would be nominating candidates from twenty four assembly seats in the Seemanchal region. With the controversial Muslim leader making his intentions clear in context of the upcoming state polls, political pundits are busy analyzing how Owaisi's decision would change the electoral fortunes in Bihar where the recent political realignment of forces has made the elections one of the most keenly contested battles since May 2014.

Owaisi - the new Messiah of the Muslims: While it might be extremely difficult to predict the impact of this move on the final outcome at this juncture, it is much easy to see why Owaisi arrived at this particular decision. Muslims, who are the AIMIM's target vote bank comprise of nearly 17 percent of the state's total population, most of whom are concentrated in the four districts in the state's north eastern region, the Seemanchal. Though it may lack grass root organization, the outfit is relying solely on the presence of such large percentage of Muslim voters as well as the appeal of its charismatic leader to open its account.

Of late, the Hyderabad MP has come in for a lot of flake for 'openly playing the minority card' with some even comparing him to Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the man who is held responsible by many Indians for the partition of the sub-continent. I personally find a lot of hypocrisy in this argument. Mixing politics with religion is unfortunately one of the dark realities of our times and the AIMIM is certainly not the first party to do it. Right wing outfits including the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Akalis have been wooing specific religious groups throughout their history. On the other hand, parties like the Congress, the RJD and the SP - the 'self-proclaimed' upholders of minority rights have done very little for their upliftment. The great irony of our political system is that the Muslims are seen as a vote bank that needs to be either offended or appeased to win elections, based on which side of the political divide you are on. As such, they continue to be one of the most neglected communities in the country today.

This is exactly where leaders like Owaisi are trying to pitch in so that they can leverage the situation. In his fiery and often provocative speeches, he also talks about development, elevation of poverty within the community and promises jobs for the youth. This is clearly striking a chord with younger Muslims who are fed up of being over looked by the parties for long.

Set back to the 'Secular' alliance: With the coming together of former rivals - Nitish, Lalu as well as the Congress, it was expected that the Muslim voters would consolidate in favor of the 'Mahagatbandhan' in its fight versus the Modi led NDA. Lalu was the darling of the Muslims ever since he stalled Lal Krishna Advani's Rath Yatra during the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation in the early nineties. It was on the basis of the M-Y combination that the RJD leader emerged as the pre-eminent political leader in Bihar. So dear was this community to his successor and former foe Nitish Kumar of the JD-U that he jeopardized his own political career in a bid to appease them after Narendra Modi was named the NDA's PM nominee in 2013, breaking off all ties with the BJP. Minority appeasement, even at the cost of hurting the interests of the majority has been a hallmark of the politics practiced by the grand old party for past six decades. As such, the alliance was poised to gain the most of the over 15 per cent minority votes.

This was before Owaisi decided to try his luck in Bihar. With the AIMIM contesting from the Seemanchal, there is no doubt that the Muslim outfit is going to eat into the vote share of the mega coalition, hurting its chances in areas where it was expected to sweep. It remains to be seen what impact the Hyderabad MP will have in a state where his party is debuting. However, the outcome of the Maharashtra state polls should be enough to give nightmares to the likes of Nitish and Lalu. In the elections to the western state's assembly held about an year ago, Owaisi nominated 26 candidates of which only two made the cut. At several segments, AIMIM candidates split the Muslim votes which would have otherwise gone to the Congress or the NCP, thereby helping the BJP. In a close contest like this one where every seat counts, the splitting of the minority votes could turn out to be the game changer, helping the NDA steal a march over the regional alliance.

Will BJP go into the 'Self destruction' mode? The general opinion seems to be that the entry of AIMIM should ultimately benefit the NDA since he will eat into the mega coalition's vote share. Though Owaisi has called Modi, the RSS and the BJP as his primary enemy, there are murmurs of a conspiracy theory suggesting a tacit understanding between the saffron outfit and the Hyderabad MP for mutual benefit. While we may not know the truth behind these rumors for the time being, it is important for the BJP and other elements within the Sangh Parivaar to hold their nerves and not get too carried away after this development.

The BJP and its affiliates should learn lessons from the UP assembly by-polls of 2014 held in the aftermath of the Muzzaffarnagar riots. It is but natural that in wake of making an impact, the Hyderabad MP and his brother Akbaruddin Owaisi are going to make provocative speeches. It will be in the interest of saffronists to stick to the development agenda and not indulge in counter-allegations. Loose canons within the party ranks, particularly the likes of Giriraj Singh who is seen as a potential contender for the post of state's CM in case the NDA wins the polls should exercise constraint. While managing party leaders might be easy, handling those from the RSS and the VHP will be an arduous task within itself. If communal tensions simmer, it is but natural for the Muslims to rally behind the party or the coalition which is most likely to keep the NDA out of power, which in this case is not the AIMIM but the Nitish-Lalu combine.

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