Showing posts with label Rahul Gandhi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rahul Gandhi. Show all posts

Monday 13 July 2020

LUCKNOW CALLING


Priyanka Gandhi
Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies won a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever performance of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party. Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

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Sunday 29 March 2020

CAPTAIN KEEN TO LEAD IN 2022


Capt. Amarinder Singh
Addressing a press conference to mark the third anniversary of his government, Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh has clarified that he would lead the Congress from the front even in the next state elections. This in spite of the fact that during the poll campaign for the 2017 elections, the erstwhile Patiala royal had declared that it would be his last electoral contest. You generally do not expect politicians to keep up their words and thank god, Amarinder has proved to be no exception. Though one may be tempted to brush aside Singh's words considering that the next state elections are still two years away, there is certainly more to it, especially when seen in the context of the turmoil that has been going through in the Congress ever since the debacle of 2014.

The Singh v/s Sidhu tussle: For years now, Captain Amarinder Singh has been the face of the Congress in the north-western state. After seeing off the rebellion by Rajinder Kaur Bhattal in the early 2000s, he has been the undisputed numero uno in the party's pecking order, even enjoying the complete favor of the party high command in Delhi. However, the entry of former cricketer turned politician Navjot Singh Sidhu into the INC has changed the equations to some extent. Apart from age, the former Amritsar MP reportedly has the active backing of Congress Vice President Priyanka Gandhi, the one factor that can make or break things in the grand old party. No wonder then that the former Amritsar MP was given the charge of Tourism in Captain's cabinet.

However, a series of misadventures on Sidhu's part including his attendance of Pakistani PM Imran Khan's oath taking ceremony gave the Punjab CM the opportunity to cut the former to size. Sidhu was publicly reprimanded by captain on several occasions before being unceremoniously dropped from the cabinet altogether. And all this while, there was no objection raised, at least publicly, by the Gandhis completely aware that any rap on Amarinder's knuckles might adversely affect the Congress' chances in one of the few states where its stocks are soaring. Lately, there was some talk that Priyanka Gandhi who had met Sidhu in Delhi earlier this month had promised to give him a 'very important' role in the 2022 poll campaign. However, Singh's announcement of leading the party for the next elections is perhaps, Captain's pre-preemptive strike. He is not handing over to Sidhu, come what may.

Old Guards v/s Young Turks: When the Congress won the 2004 polls against the prediction of most political pundits in the country, many had attributed the victory to the right balance of experience and youth within the INC. Fifteen years down the line, it is this very divide that today threatens to destroy whatever little is left of it. Ever since Rahul Gandhi stepped down as the President of the Congress, the fortunes of the young brigade seems to be waning. Former Mumbai MP Milind Deora is sulking for a while; Sachin Pilot is not exactly on good terms with Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot whereas Rahul's closest aide Jyotiraditya Scindia is today firmly in the saffron camp, heaping praises on Modi and Shah. Meanwhile, the veterans who had lost most of their political heft during the days of junior Gandhi are using this opportunity to stage a comeback with the party's power structure.

Quite obviously, this fact is not lost on Amarinder Singh either who is an old timer. To add to it, Sidhu, his only 'young' challenger within the party has scored too many self goals and Captain has been quick to capitalize on them, reprimanding his former cabinet colleague several times for his actions and statements. With each shot that he has taken at his adversary, Singh's position has become stronger. Captain's words, therefore must be also seen as a continuation of the generational war ragging in the Congress, with the odds being in favor of the old guard for the time being.

The Rise of Regional Satraps in the INC: Ever since Indira Gandhi came back to power post the infamous Emergency, there was a systematic attempt by the Congress High Command to cut powerful regional leaders to size, a policy that was later continued by Rajiv and Sonia. State leaders with significant mass base were denied the post of Chief Minister whereas the post was generally filled with sycophants who would cater to the whims and fancies of New Delhi and were dependent on the Gandhi brand value for their political survival. While this may have worked earlier, the rise of Modi has somehow taken the sheen away from the Congress' first family. Unfortunately for the INC, absence of local leaders with a strong ground network and popular support base has meant that it finds itself behind the BJP and regional players is most Indian states. Not only does this affect the party's finances considering that it has been out of the Union government for two terms, it also reduces its ability to send some of its best orators to Rajya Sabha.

A look at the party's situation today shows that it has only three strong state leaders - Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Siddaramaih in Karnataka and Amarinder Singh in Punjab. To add to it, the 78 year old leader's popularity is at a all time high. The Akalis are still licking their wounds; the disastrous defeat in the 2017 state polls had been a body blow and it will take some time for the Badals to recover from it. The AAP has failed to expand its voter base in the state. With a second consecutive term looking assured as of now, Captain Saab would want to grace the CM's chair for the fourth time whereas the High Command, no matter how sympathetic it is to Sidhu's cause, would have no option but to stick with Captain.

Two years is a long time in politics. However, don't be surprised if Captain will lead the Congress in the 2022 polls. Most likely, the 'important' position that Priyanka seems to have promised Sidhu would be that of one of the party's star campaigners and the former cricketer would be expected to win over voters for his in-party rival with his witty jokes.
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Sunday 27 December 2015

2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH


The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.
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Sunday 11 October 2015

THE POLITICAL PARIAH

Rahul Gandhi - Facebook
He came, he saw, he spoke but did he conquer? While he might still have been able to charm the audience while addressing a rally in Western Champaran in mid-September, the absence of regional heavyweights including incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav proves that the Congress Vice President is still to rub off the tag of being a 'pariah' (outsider) in political circles. The grand old party tried to brush this issue under the carpet by stating that the Amethi MP was in the poll bound state not for campaigning but to participate in the INC's celebration of Ambedkar's 125th birth anniversary. Though the younger Gandhi did his best, accusing the Modi government of failing to fulfill most of its electoral promises, the absence of the big names from the grand alliance on the dais took the sheen out of the rally even before it began. Although the JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar did receive RaGa at the Patna airport, he excused himself from being seen with the Gandhi scion citing ticket distribution, which as per the detractors was just a ploy. Meanwhile, Lalu preferred to stay away too; his younger son Tejaswi represented the RJD at the rally. From the ruling party, it was Rajya Sabha and senior leader K C Tyagi who accompanied Rahul Gandhi at the September 19th rally.

It is well-known that the Congress VP and the former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav have a little bit of history between them; many will remember that it was Rahul who famously tore the Ordinance introduced by the previous Manmohan Singh led UPA II regime allowing convicted legislators to continue in their post. With the Congress' move to protect its former ally going down the drain, the Lalu-Rahul relations were spoiled forever. Of course, this should not have been a surprise at all for either the Congress or its leader. However, what would have hurt for sure is the absence of Nitish Kumar. We very well know that the Amethi MP is a big admirer of the JD-U chief. Even while the latter was an integral part of the NDA, RaGa had asked him to shun the 'communal' BJP and join the UPA. It is also believed that he was in favor of an alliance with Kumar for the 2014 General Elections but it was his mother who prevailed and the INC joined hands with the RJD. With the negative publicity surrounding Gandhi yet to die down, Kumar seems to be playing safe and rightly so; besides, unlike the Congress leader who has virtually nothing to lose in Bihar, for the CM, the upcoming polls is for sure is going to be a 'do or die' scenario.

I wrote a blog post a few months ago (Link) citing what the Amethi MP needs to do in my opinion to 're-brand' himself so that he is taken seriously, both by the electorate and by people within political circles. I must say, that in the last few months, the Congress VP has done really well; he is seen more often in the Parliament nowadays. He is seen taking a more hard line, criticizing the Modi government at every given opportunity. In fact, if party sources are to be believed, the washout of the monsoon session of the Lower House was largely his idea. Most importantly, he is seen taking a stand on issues that matter to the people at large. Be it net neutrality, OROP or the Land Bill, he is seen in the midst of the action of late which is certainly a plus. However the snub by senior regional leaders indicates that there seems to be a lot more that RaGa needs to do.

The last point that I made in that post - collaboration with other non-NDA leaders is something where there is a lot more for Rahul to work upon. I thought that the Bihar elections where the Congress is fighting in alliance with the JD-U and the RJD would be a superb opportunity for the younger Gandhi to strike a working relationship with other non-BJP parties. If the reports coming out of the state are anything to go by, that certainly does not seem to be the case. As of now, Nitish and Lalu have kept a safe distance from junior Gandhi. Perhaps, for things to change and such 'embarrassments' to be avoided in the future, the Amethi MP and his party need to end their drought and start winning some polls. Certainly, Bihar where the INC is a part of a grand coalition, could be the state from where the RaGa bandwagon starts rolling. In that case, apart from deciding the fate of Nitish & Co, Bihar 2015 could be the launch pad for the revival of the Congress and its crown prince Rahul Gandhi.
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Sunday 23 August 2015

A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE!

Shivraj Singh Chouhan - Facebook
Move over the Opposition disrupting the entire monsoon session of the Parliament over the Vyapam Scam or the non-NDA political parties calling for the resignation of Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan for his alleged role, rather, his inability to prevent the scam and later protect the accused and the witnesses in the case. If the results of the ten municipal corporations that went to the polls this month are to go by, the Chief Minister who has won two straight terms in the state assembly continues to 'rule' the hearts of the people and the BJP remains to be the party of their choice. Of course, the municipal polls are in no way, a referendum on Chouhan and the victory in few cities and towns scattered across MP cannot be extrapolated to the entire state. As the saffron outfit's detractors will tell you, the BJP has traditionally done well in urban centers, the 2009 General Elections being a rare exception. However, the extent of BJP's win and the decimation of the Congress in the thick of media's relentless coverage of the Recruitment Scam has punctured the Opposition's stand. This coming at a time when the Congress wanted to use the episode as a tool to 'gherao' the Modi regime.

For a leader who was fighting fire on all fronts, the emphatic victory would have come as a much needed relief for Chouhan, especially after there were murmurs within the state unit of the party of a possible rift. The results have pretty much laid to rest all the clamor, at least from within the saffron ranks, for his ouster. The CM is an astute politician; aware that the results of the polls could to a large extent decide his political future, he actively took part in the campaigning, attending several road shows. There is no surprise then that he was quick to leverage political mileage once the news of BJP's impressive win were declared. On his twitter handle, Singh played the 'victim' card, accusing his detractors of trying to maligning his image and that of the Madhya Pradesh while promising to fight to uphold the prestige of the state.

Besides the CM, the victory is also a big shot in the arm for Narendra Modi. If you notice, the Congress' strategy primarily focused on puncturing Modi's poll promise of wiping out corruption from the country. By sweeping the civic polls, Chouhan has to some extent reposed the PM's faith in him. There is little doubt that the Congress now will have to re-think its move of blocking key reforms thereby allowing the NDA to table some of its pet Bills. Ditto for the BJP. The saffron outfit is likely to use the results of the local body elections to counter any further efforts by the Opposition to corner it.

On the opposite end of the political spectrum, the Congress camp is in a mess, a state that it has been in for long. In spite of all the hue and cry about the Vyapam Scam, it has failed miserably, managing to win just a single municipality while losing two to the BJP. Having been out of power for 12 years, the INC lacks any sort of organizational structure in the central state. This is perhaps the reason that it could just not capitalize on this golden opportunity. The party on its part, needs to retrospect as to why it has not been able to win the trust of the electorate here for so long. Another point to ponder about for the INC is that whenever it is pitted against the Modi-led BJP, its performance has been dismal. In fact, the party seems to have completely botched up the campaign. The protests against Vyapam were centered in Delhi and ironically, not in MP, where it is alleged to have taken place, a classic case of barking up the wrong tree. Surprisingly, none of its top leadership was seen at party rallies held in the state before the polls.

It is now for the Congress to decide whether it wants to continue holding the nation and the Parliament hostage over the issue or abandon it and move on. Frankly speaking, there is nothing wrong in fighting the saffron camp over the Recruitment Scam; I mean, the number of deaths and the money involved is too high for the Congress to let this 'opportunity' to pass by. But then, there are other, more mature ways of fighting the government. Hope, Rahul Gandhi is listening.

Speaking of the junior Gandhi, since he was the one leading the Congress protests in the Parliament, he has a lot to answer. Though he is trying to break the mould and meet more people, he was missing from action in Madhya Pradesh. Think about it, for a cadre which has been demoralized and directionless after a spate of losses, the very presence of the Vice President could have fused in a lot of confidence. And then, how can one absolve leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijay Singh of the blame? Though he has been at the helm of party affairs for sometime now, the junior Scindia has just not produced any results. Certainly, the party high commands needs to rethink its decision of placing such an important state unit in the hands of such a young and politically immature leader.
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