IT'S A DEAL!!!

The NDA in Bihar

All the ego clashes and political arm twisting apart, the four parties that constitute the NDA in Bihar reached a consensus on the seat sharing arrangement in mid September, a couple of weeks after its bête noire - the Mahaghatbandhan made a similar announcement. Speaking to the media, BJP president and the man behind the accord Amit Shah put up a brave face, squashing all rumors of rift between the partners, primarily LJP's Paswan and HAM's Manjhi who seemed to be at loggerheads to prove who amongst the two is the real leader of the lower castes within the NDA ranks. As per the arrangement, the saffron outfit which is heading the front took away the lion's share and will be fielding candidates from 160 assembly segments. The pecking order within the alliance was clearly demarcated with the LJP getting 40 seats followed by Kushwaha's RLSP getting 23 and Manjhi's newly launched HAM bagging 20. Here are the key takeaways from the entire exercise in my opinion.

The seat sharing arrangement between the four players has clearly shown who is the boss. With the BJP contesting nearly two thirds of the total seats, almost 60 seats more than what it had contested in alliance with the JD-U in last state polls, the party has given itself an opportunity to form a simple majority on its own. Of course, at present indications are that the contest is going to be keenly fought affair and it is highly unlikely that the party can go past the half way mark on its own. However, it has at least given itself a chance. Moreover, it is now but sure that in case the NDA forms the next government in Patna, the CM will for sure be from the saffron outfit. If you remember, allies like the RLSP and the HAM were pitching for their supremos to be anointed as the alliance's choice for the top job. With the hierarchy firmly established, all these murmurs have been laid to rest. Also from the BJP's perspective, with the deal being hammered out, it can no go on the offensive in its bid to form its maiden regime in Bihar.

So have the allies got a 'raw' deal? To answer this question, we need to answer a different question: Does the BJP need the allies or do the allies need BJP? With the entire opposition ganging up against you, having a few friends on your side does help; hopefully the saffron camp realizes this. Moreover, in a state where caste can be a dominant factor in determining the outcome, these outfits who have backing of certain sections of the society can help tilting the balance on one side in a closely fought contest like this one. In spite of this, I think it is the allies who benefit more from the arrangement.

Imagine the scenario wherein the LJP, the RLSP and the HAM had not aligned with the BJP. Firstly, two of the three parties would not have had any MPs in the Parliament today; the only reason that six LJP members and three RLSP nominees made the cut was that the belonged to parties backing Narendra Modi.

For outfits like the Hindustan Awam Manch (HAM) or the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) whose chiefs had left the JD-U to float their own parties after differences with incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, there was no way they could have joined the Grand Alliance. Going back to Kumar would mean compromising on their self respect and enduring political humiliation from all quarters. On the other hand, their association with the BJP gives them a chance in a fight in which they otherwise would have been destined to lose had they gone solo; without the support of the NDA, even opening their account would have been nothing short of a miracle considering the lack of organization structure within these outfits and their inability to arrange the resources needed to fight such a high stakes election for the time being.

While one may understand why the likes of Kushwaha and Manjhi had to go with the NDA, the case of Bihar's political joker - Ramvilas Paswan is, as usual 'curious', to say the least. In the last three decades, he has tried all permutations and combinations; no wonder, allying with the grand alliance was also an alternative which the Dalit leader would have contemplated, even post the May 2014 General Elections. However, one needs to realize that the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has been in a moribund state ever since 2004 with its support base dwindling with every passing day; in the last state polls, the party in alliance with the RJD could win just 3 seats. At this juncture, if the Hajipur strongman had gone with the Nitish led coalition, he would have been fourth in the hierarchy, even behind the Congess and thus would have at max, got 20 to 25 seats to contest. On the other hand, the LJP is the second largest partner in the NDA now and will nominate candidates for 40 assembly constituencies. Though a NDA victory in Bihar will be the ideal scenario for LJP chief, his main aim will be to leverage whatever is left of the Modi wave to regain lost political ground by maximizing his final tally; moreover, knowing the wily fox that he is, Paswan should have no problems dumping the NDA and walking over to the Nitish camp in case of a hung assembly in case of a hung verdict if he is offered a 'good' deal.

Perhaps, one factor that most of us have missed is the political mastery of BJP president Amit Shah. A brilliant strategist who was elevated to the top post in the party ranks after scripting a memorable win for his boss in the big polls, he showed us again why he is amongst the most astute politicians in the country today. Bihar is an important state for the BJP and failing to cross the mark here will be a major embarrassment for the PM himself. No wonder, with unrest brewing within the constituents of the NDA and the allies getting more assertive, Modi had to depute his trusted aide to sort out the matter at the earliest. Having completed his task with distinction and brokered a deal, it remains to to be seen if Shah can paint the big state 'saffron' for Modi.

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A PROBLEM OF PLENTY

Months before the all important state of Bihar goes to the polls, the BJP is literally 'spoilt for choices' as far as the candidature of the Chief Minister is concerned, something that it would have definitely liked to avoid at this critical juncture. While the mega coalition of non-NDA parties has reached a consensus on the candidature of the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, much to the surprise of most analyst and observers, the saffron outfit led Front has decided to stick to the stand it has taken ever since the rise of Narenda Modi of fighting the state elections under the leadership of the Prime Minister. Of course, this is completely in contrast to the BJP of the past which would declare its leader much before the polls. Meanwhile, it is easy to comprehend why the saffron leadership is keeping all the cards close to its chest on this rather contentious issue. With the state unit of the party split into various factions, each rallying behind its own leader, it makes a lot of sense to the BJP not to 'displease' any of its influential 'netas' in the state and risk being 'abandoned' by their supporters. In this high stakes battle where the entire political spectrum has put behind its weight firmly behind the Nitish led Janata Parivaar (JP), it is extremely crucial for the saffron camp to maintain unity and discipline to pull off a memorable win.

Sushil Kumar Modi, the deputy CM in the erstwhile JD-U and BJP government in Patna for eight years is considered to be the numero uno contender for top post if the party manages to trounce the JP and win a comfortable majority. A product of the Emergency that gave the state some of its tallest leaders including Nitish and Lalu, he as the Finance Minister is credited along with the JD-U supremo of transforming Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing big states in the country. Perhaps the most well known face from the saffron camp in the state, Modi also has the firm backing of the RSS, an organization that he has been a member of for nearly five decades. Two Bihari minister in the Union government - Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan and Minister of State for Skill Development Rajiv Pratap Rudy have already put their weight behind him whereas sources suggest that party's in-charge of Bihar unit Ananth Kumar too is in favor of him. On the other hand though, there is a strong anti-Sushil Modi camp within the saffron ranks led by the likes of four time MLA Rameshwar Chaurasia, C P Thakur and Prem Kumar which is trying its best to undermine his growing influence. Moreover, the defeat of the NDA in the 2014 state by-polls is cited by many as an example of him failing to inspire the cadre in tackling a formidable Opposition. Lastly, in a state where 'caste' factors dominate electoral calculations, Modi as the leader of the Vaishya community which constitutes 5% of the electorate may not be acceptable to the more dominant Yadavs or Maha-Dalits.

Nand Kishore Yadav, the Leader of Opposition in the state legislative assembly belongs to the influential Yadav community and has been with the BJP for long to be made the CM. However, he lacks the kind of popularity that someone like Sushil Modi enjoys. In the times of Narendra Modi when there seems to be a deliberate attempt within the party to thwart 'strong' saffron state leaders, this could be a positive. Another likely option from the Yadav community is former RJD strongman Ramkripal Yadav. Having moved to the BJP after being denied a ticket from the Patliputra parliamentary seat in 2014, he is presently serving as the Union Minister for Drinking Water and Sanitation. Projecting a non-Upper Caste leader as its CM candidate though is likely to backfire on the party as its 'loyal' vote bank that constitutes 11% of the votes may feel 'let down'.

Speaking of Cabinet Ministers, the names of Ravi Shankar Prasad and Giriraj Singh too are believed to be doing the rounds in the party circles. The former who is managing the ministries of Communications and Information Technology is well-known in political spectrum and may emerge as a consensus candidate to keep the warring factions at bay; sadly, he lacks mass appeal. On the other hand, Giriraj Singh is a prominent face of the Bhumihars, a sub-caste within the Upper Castes that have been with the party since the Mandal era. Apart from the RSS background, another thing that works in his favor is his unflinching loyalty to Narendra Modi. At a time when the PM had very few friends in BJP's Bihar state unit, Singh had always stood behind him. Unfortunately for him though, Giriraj has a off late embarrassed the party and the government by his 'radical' views. Handing the reins of such an important state to a 'loose' canon like him may be the perfect recipe for disaster in the long run. Also, such a move could polarize the elections, further strengthening the Muslim support for the JP alliance.

A few old timers too are said to be lobbying for the post of the Chief Minister sensing a saffron victory in the state polls. C P Thakur, a Bhumihar and senior party leader at a press conference has announced his availability to lead the state if called upon to do so though his elevation is highly unlikely. When one of Bihar BJP's most prominent face Shatrughan Sinha was not given a berth in the Union government, it was believed that he could be declared the party's CM candidate for the state polls. However, over the months, the movie star who is seen close to Advani has been given the cold shoulder and there are speculations that he may even quit the saffron outfit in the near future. Gaya strongman and Extremely Backward Class leader Prem Kumar is said to be the 'dark horse' in the race for the top post. The seven time MLA who was close to Sushil Modi earlier has come out of the shadows and is making a strong pitch for his own candidature.

As if the numerable choices for the CM within the saffron camps were not enough, its allies within the NDA too have voiced their opinion on the issue. The Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) passed a resolution on 21 June asking for its supremo and Lok Sabha MP Upendra Kushwaha to be named as the NDA's CM candidate. Jitan Ram Manjhi whose Hindustan Awaam Manch (HAM) is also a part of the BJP led alliance is said to be nursing Chief Ministerial ambitions. After being at the helm of affairs for a few months, Manjhi is said to be the foremost Maha-Dalit leader in the state at present. Like Manjhi, another saffron ally - Ramvilas Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) too is playing it 'safe' for the time being. Like Manjhi, he has said that he will accept whatever decision the PM takes on this matter. Sources close to the Hajipur strongman know that he is just waiting for the right time before he thinks of pitching in. Certainly, the race for 1 Anne Marg in Patna within the NDA is heating up even before the state polls.

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THE LITMUS TEST

Ram Vilas Paswan - Facebook

In an interview to the Economic Times, the Union Food Minister and the LJP chief Ramvilas Paswan called the upcoming Bihar state assembly polls as a matter of 'life and death'. The wily politician who has the distinction of being associated with all three major national formations in the country, namely the NDA, the UPA and the United Front in the last two decades was bang on; having taken the risk of 'compromising' on his secular credentials by jumping on the Modi bandwagon just months before the May 2014 elections, a move that reaped rich dividends in the form of four parliamentary seats, the Hajipur strong man clearly understands the importance of Bihar 2015 from the perspective of national politics in general and the future of his political outfit in particular which has been languishing on the fringes for quite some time. Apart from the fact that a good showing by his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) will help him in regaining some lost ground on the political turf, it will also be the perfect stage for the senior Dalit leader to pass on the baton to his son and political successor - Chirag Paswan.

The last ten years have largely been disappointing from the perspective of the former Socialist leader. His lust for power got the better of him in February 2005 when a greedy Paswan with 28 MLAs refused to align either with Lalu or Nitish Kumar, leading to a stalemate that lasted for over six months. The move would cost him dearly; not only did 12 MLAs of his party defect to the saffron combine, the LJP's tally in the state assembly held later that year plummeted from 28 to 10, relegating him to a marginal force in Bihar as the Nitish Era began taking shape. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, he was a part of the Fourth Front comprising of regional satraps including Mulayum Singh and Lalu Yadav; this tactic to build up some pressure on the ruling Congress which was anyway expected to win a consecutive term proved to be a complete disaster as Paswan's LJP was completely wiped out with the party supremo even losing from his own pocket borough of Hajipur to former CM Ram Sundar Das of the JD-U. As if this humiliation was not enough, the RJD-LJP alliance was decimated by the ruling NDA in the state polls held in the following year. Months before the last General Elections, it was believed that Paswan would stick with the Congress, having burnt his fingers by abandoning the INC in favor of the RJD last time around. However, in a move that took many by surprise, the LJP chief, sensing the national mood in favor of Narendra Modi did the 'unimaginable' by joining the very NDA that he had left, way back in 2002, ironically citing the BJP's inability to prevent the Gujarat Riots.

Paswan is in many ways, the 'Joker' of Bihar politics, having allied with and then ditched almost all major political parties and leaders in the state at various points in a career spanning over four decades. However, the spate of political set backs in the last nine years have put a big question mark on his future. Even the most ardent of his supporters will agree that the four Lok Sabha seats won by the LJP in 2014 were only because of its association with the BJP led by Narendra Modi. With people rejecting caste-based politics in favor of inclusive development, the heroes of the Mandal Era including Paswan have been seeing a substantial percentage of their voter base slowly gravitating towards his rivals. And to make matters worse, the party which was formed way back in 2000 has been unable to spread its organizational structure outside Hajipur making it a sub-regional outfit nor does it have any core ideology; in fact, owing to a dearth of second rung leaders, the LJP is solely dependent on the persona of its supremo to win votes and that unfortunately, is fading at an alarming rate. No wonder then, Paswan's party is expected to get at most 40 seats when the four parties constituting the NDA meet for seat sharing talks in the coming weeks.

Chirag Paswan - Facebook

However, Paswan should have no reason for complaining. In the battle between the BJP led NDA and the Nitish Kumar led Janata Parivaar combine, the LJP would have been wiped out had it taken the risk of going to the polls on its own. The move to piggy bank on the NaMo wave in the General Elections paid off but it is the state polls that will truly decide the fate of the Dalit leader and his party. A tally of over 20 seats could just be the opening that Paswan so desperately needs to revive his political fortunes. Suppose the LJP finishes with a 20 plus tally and the BJP falls short of a majority on its own, the senior politician will leverage his political support to the saffron government to make sure he gets all what he wants. Moreover, if both the coalitions fall short of a simple majority on their own, the Hajipur strongman, leading a contingent of 20 odd MLAs could emerge as the 'King-Maker'. In that scenario, he will have no problems whatsoever in dumping his Union Ministry and the alliance with the BJP to cross over to the JP if he manages to get a good bargain. With the Bihar polls becoming a clash of egos, Nitish & Co. would perhaps not mind offering the CM post to the LJP chief just to keep the BJP out of power in case of a hung assembly later this year. On the other hand, a clear majority to the BJP on its own or the Janta Parivaar will force Paswan to stick with the NDA at least for the time being. Finally, if the LJP fails to go past the two digit mark, like in 2010 then irrespective of the final outcome, it would be safe to assume that henceforth, Paswan will no longer be considered as one of the top political heavyweights of Bihar.

The Bihar state polls 2015 will also be the litmus test for Paswan's 33 year old son Chirag Paswan who made his political debut by winning the 2014 parliamentary elections from Jamui. The former Bollywood actor who was seen as the man behind the BJP-LJP alliance in the state will be keen on repeating his party's superb performance from last May. With the senior Paswan nearing 70, the upcoming elections will be a test for the young leader to horn his leadership skills and make a connect with the masses. It is but natural that he will play a key role in most matters relating to the party including seat sharing talks with the BJP, candidate selection and campaigning. A good show by the LJP would herald the coming of age of another 'son' on Bihar's political landscape whereas a defeat could potentially mark the end of the party as well as the father and son duo that are at the helm of its affairs.

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